Invasion of Ukraine, D+19, SITREP (#201)
Note: This blog post was done entirely from open source intelligence
Today, March 15, 2022, is D+19 in the Russian Invasion of the Ukraine. Sanctions have been a tool used by western powers to punish Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This article provides two historic examples of conflicts and their sanctions to help business leaders make better predictions for the future on the economic impact of the war on their business. In addition, this article builds on the previous analysis from March 11, 2022 by updating the crowd sourced Battle Damage Assessment on both sides of the conflict from the Oryx website and providing an assessment on the impact of the war on both the Russian and Ukrainian forces.
Sanctions — How Long Will They Last?
The sanctions on Russia are not unified. The European Union has some sanctions, the United Kingdom others, the United States others, and even individual companies, like McDonalds, have imposed sanctions. Whether these sanctions will work on Russia remains to be seen. As I tried to get a better understanding of what the future looks like with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, I found it helpful to revisit two military efforts and their sanctions. This historic context may help you make a better prediction for of the economic impact of the war on your business in these uncertain times.
NATO, the EU, Kosovo and Serbia, 1998-2000
One of the last major conflicts in Europe happened around Kosovo from 1998 to 2000. As some of you remember, President Slobodan Milošević ordered Serbia’s military to brutally put down a Kosovar-Albanian insurgency in Kosovo in 1998 and 1999. This caused international outrage and the displacement of up to 1,000,000 Kosovar-Albanians. The first step in sanctions against Serbia were the UN Sanctions on Weapons Trade which were implemented on March 31, 1998.
However, the UN sanctions did not stop the Serbian military’s efforts in Kosovo. After a series of UN resolutions, on March 24, 1999, NATO forces began an air campaign over Kosovo and Serbia. In addition to the start of the air war, the European Union imposed sanctions on trade, financial aid, travel, and the export of oil on Serbia. After 78 days of bombing, Serbia agreed to withdraw their forces from Kosovo. On June 11, 1999 the lead elements of the Kosovo Force (KFOR, a NATO ground force) entered Kosovo. I served as part of KFOR from 1999-2000.
On October 6, 2000, Slobodan Milošević stepped down as president of Serbia after failing to win a majority in an election. The EU ended sanctions against Serbia on October 9, 2000 after 566 Days of sanctions.
Iraq, 1990-2003
One of the last major invasions of another country happened from August 2 to 4, 1990 when Saddam Hussein ordered Iraq’s military to invade and occupy Kuwait. On August 6, 1990 the UN enacted sanctions on all trade with Iraq, including oil. From January 17, 1991 to February 28, 1991 a coalition conducted Operation Desert Storm which forced Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait. However, Saddam Hussein remained in power.
After the end of Operation Desert Storm in April 1991, the UN ended its ban on the trade of food to Iraq. However, since the export of oil was still banned, Iraq had little cash to pay for food. In May 1996, the UN implemented the Oil for Food Program which enabled Iraq to sell oil on the global market to pay for food for its people. The sanctions against Iraqi oil production lasted 2,095 Days.
Operation Iraqi Freedom occurred from March 20, 2003 to May 1, 2003. Although he remained on the run until December 2003, Saddam Hussein was effectively removed from power. Sanctions against Iraq continued until November 21, 2003 when they were eliminated (4,855 Days).
Before the invasion of Kuwait, Iraq produced about 2 Million barrels of oil per day. From 1991 to 1996, due to the sanctions, Iraq produced about 500,000 barrels of oil per day. During the Oil for Food Program (1996-2003), Iraq produced 2.5 million barrels of oil per day. Today, Iraq produces about 4 million barrels per day.
Sanctions, How Long?
So cut to the chase on sanctions, right?
Sanctions against Russia are here to stay. Even if the war ended tomorrow, sanctions would remain unless their removal was part of a negotiated settlement. Both historic examples show that sanctions didn’t cause the leader to change his behavior and that sanctions will continue, even long after the wars conclude.
So how long will sanctions last against Russia? My prediction is that the government (US, UK, EU, etc.) enacted sanctions last for over 365 days from today. As you think about the war’s future economic impacts to your business, recognize that even if the war ended tomorrow, some or all sanctions will continue as a punishment against Putin and Russia. It may be helpful to keep this in mind as you make long-term decisions for your business.
Current Situation
Here is Jomini of the West’s (@jominiW) map of the current situation in Ukraine:
Here is Jomini of the West’s depiction of Russia’s invasion plans:
Map Notes
Combined Arms Army (CAA) — Symbolized by XXXX on the map, the Army Group system was developed by the Soviets during the Second World War, when the echelons of corps and armies were merged together. Army Groups typically have at several motorized rifle and tank divisions and brigades; headquarters, artillery, air defense, reconnaissance, and MTO (logistics) brigades; and an engineering regiment and a NBC defense regiment. During combat operations the Army Group detaches needed assets to support the various maneuver units.
Divisions — symbolized by XX on the map, these formations have about 8,500 soldiers and resemble Soviet-era divisions, with three motorized rifle regiments and one tank regiment (for a motorized rifle division (MRD)) or three tank regiments and one motorized rifle regiment (for a tank division) plus supporting units.
Brigades — symbolized by X on the map, these formations typically have 3,000-4,500 soldiers
Battalion Tactical Groups — symbolized by II on the map, these formations typically have 600 soldiers. See Invasion of Ukraine, D+15, SITREP for more details on the BTG.
Crowd Sourcing Battle Damage Assessment
The invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022. Each day the conflict continues, both Russian and Ukraine forces lose vehicles from combat. These vehicles were destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured in battle. Battle Damage Assessment, or BDA, is “the estimate of damage composed of physical and functional damage assessment, as well as target system assessment, resulting from the application of lethal or nonlethal military force.” In the old days, the Battalion or Brigade Intelligence Officer had to collect reports from helicopter pilots, Air Force pilots, forward observers, and ground forces who engaged the enemy. Based on these reports, the Intelligence Officer would make an assessment of how badly the enemy had been damaged from the actions of friendly forces.
Stijn Mitzer, along with Joost Oliemans, Kemal Janovsky, Dan Janovsky, and Jakub Janovsky, have taken this idea into the 21st Century. The five people are attempting to crowd source battle damage assessments in real-time from both the Russian and Ukraine armed forces during the invasion of Ukraine on The Oryx Website. The team finds photos of destroyed, abandoned, and captured vehicles and then tries to count them based on the vehicle type. They also categories them based on the vehicle being destroyed, abandoned, or captured. The team does its best to make sure that they are not counting the same vehicle twice and are updating it daily. Check it our yourself — the link to their regularly updated article is here.
Advanced BDA:
Just counting damaged, destroyed, and captured vehicles is Basic BDA. Taking the raw numbers and then assessing the impact on the invasion force is Advanced BDA. Advanced BDA helps military leaders understand the context and make better decisions.
The military uses three categories to measure the impact on enemy units: suppressed, neutralized, or destroyed. As you would expect, each of these terms has a military definition. These terms use the US Army’s Field Artillery percentages for suppressed, neutralized, or destroyed.
Suppress is a tactical mission task that results in temporary degradation of the performance of a force or weapons system below the level needed to accomplish its mission. It is the lowest level and typically equates to 3% of a friendly or enemy unit’s equipment being destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured.
Neutralize is a tactical mission task that results in rendering enemy personnel or materiel incapable of interfering with a particular operation. It is in the middle and usually equates to 10% of a friendly or enemy unit’s equipment being destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured.
Destroy is a tactical mission task that physically renders an enemy force combat-ineffective until it is reconstituted. It is the highest level and usually equals to 30% of a friendly or enemy unit’s equipment being destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured.
Russian BDA (As of March 14, 2022 at 15:00 AM EST the Oryx Website)
Russian forces have lost:
213 Losses (29 ⬆️) out of an estimated 940x T-72/80/90s Tanks — 22.6% Losses (Neutralized)
Average of 12x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day of the conflict
Estimate “Destroyed” or 30% losses on March 21, 2022
277 Losses (34 ⬆️ )out of an estimated 3,102x BMPs/BTRs/BMDs (Armored Personnel Carriers) — 8.9% Losses (Suppressed)
Average of 15x BMPs/BTRs damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day of the conflict
Estimate “Neutralized” or 10% losses on March 18, 2022
2 Losses (No Change) out of an estimated 376x Shturm-S ATGM Carriers — .5% Losses (No impact)
40 Losses (4 ⬆️ )out of an estimated 282x BAT-2s and 188x IMR-2s (Engineer Vehicles) — 8.5% Losses (Suppressed)
76 Losses (4 ⬆️ )out of an estimated 564x 152 mm 2S19 Msta and 564x BM-21 122mm MLRS (Field Artillery) — 6.7% Losses (Suppressed)
39 Losses (10 ⬆️ ) out of an estimated 564x Pantsir-S1 (SAMs) — 6.9% Losses (Suppressed)
85 MT-LB Losses (16 ⬆️) out of an estimated 658x MT-LB ACRV (Command and Control) — 12.9% Losses (Neutralized)
Average of 4x MT-LBs damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day of the conflict
The latest US estimates of Russian casualties are around 4,750 soldiers killed. Remember casualties in war are killed, wounded, and captured. This would also imply that there are 25,000 Russian soldiers wounded or captured. (This figure uses the 1:5 killed to wounded ratio that the Soviet Union experienced in Afghanistan from 1979-1989.) I think this number might be a bit high.
Ukrainian BDA (As of March 14, 2022 at 15:00 AM EST the Oryx Website)
I believe these numbers are low since the Russian forces are not using social media and it makes it difficult for the Oryx team to crowd source the data. However, it is a good start point. So far, according to Oryx, Ukrainian forces have lost:
65 Losses (21 ⬆️ ) out of an estimated 630x T-64/80s Tanks — 10.3% Losses (Neutralized)
Average of 3x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day of the conflict.
Last post I estimated Ukrainian tanks would be “neutralized” on March 16 ✅
81 Losses (25 ⬆️) out of an estimated 2,215x BMPs/BTRs/BMDs (Armored Personnel Carriers) — 3.6% Losses (Suppressed)
Average of 4x BMPs/BTRs damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day of the conflict.
26 Losses (2 ⬆️ ) out of an estimated 306x 152 mm 2S19 Msta and 306x BM-21 122mm MLRS (Field Artillery) — 4.2% Losses (Suppressed)
8 MT-LB Losses (1 ⬆️ ) out of an estimated 476x MT-LB ACRV (Command and Control) — 1.6% Losses (No Impact)
President Zelenskyy said over the weekend that over 1,300 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed (US estimates were 3,000). Remember casualties in war are killed, wounded, and captured. This would also imply that there are about 6,500 Ukrainian soldiers wounded or captured. This uses the same ratio (1 killed to 5 wounded/captured) from the Soviet experience in Afghanistan. This number does not include civilian casualties.
Background Information on Both the Russian Invasion Force and Ukrainian Defense Forces Can Be Found at:
Invasion of Ukraine, D+15, SITREP
BTGs, OoB, and Crowd Sourced BDA in Ukraine, D+11
Conclusion
Want even more? Reach out to me me here for a virtual talk to your company on the Invasion of Ukraine and its tactical, strategic, and financial implications.
Want something different? In my day job, I’m an executive coach and leadership consultant. I published a book last summer on how to develop your perseverance and accomplish your goals — Grow Your Grit, available for sale at Amazon.
Use your deeper awareness of the invasion of Ukraine to go on the offensive and follow the conflict with better.
Note: This blog post was done entirely from open source intelligence