Invasion of Ukraine, November SITREP (#238)
Today, November 1, 2022, is D+249 in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. For those of you who have been following TFCG’s posts on Ukraine, I post once a month at the beginning of each month on the war. Today’s post provides a strategic and tactical update, as well as continues the crowd sourced Battle Damage Assessment update of the entire Russian Invasion of Ukraine.
Yesterday, the Oryx Website reported that Russia has lost 1,419 tanks (186 over the month of October alone) since the war began. To put this in perspective — in the Active Duty US Army there are 12 Armored Brigade Combat Teams each with 87 tanks (1,044 M1A2 Abrams). If the United States lost the same amount of tanks in a conflict, every tank in all 12 of the active Armored Brigade Combat Teams would have been destroyed plus another ~4+ brigade’s worth of tanks. The Russian tank loss numbers are staggering.
Here is a historic perspective on tank losses. From June 6, 1944 through May 15, 1945 the United States lost ~7,000 (including ~4,347 M4 Sherman Tanks) tanks in the European Theater of Operations (think D-Day to the end of the war in northern Europe). That’s an average of 20.5 tanks per day. The Russians lost 6.0 tanks per day in the month of October.
Current Situation — Strategic Level
The US Army defines the strategic level of war as the level of war that “involves national (or multinational) guidance and resources to achieve national- or theater-level objectives. The strategic level of analysis would analyze any actions taken that involve national (or multinational) guidance, resources, or objectives and end state.” For Russia, its strategic objectives remain recognition of the annexation of Crimea, Ukrainian rejection of NATO, the demilitarization of Ukrainian armed forces, and recognition of DPR and LPR as independent states. For Ukraine, its strategic objectives remain defeat of the Russian military, restoration of its borders, and a US/European security guarantee.
At the strategic level, Russia continued to look for ways to snatch some type of victory out of the jaws of defeat. They continue to try to put pressure on Ukraine to end the war. Last week, Russia pulled out of a deal to allow grain to be shipped through the Black Sea. Ukraine and Russia account for nearly a third of global wheat exports, and they are also among the top three global exporters of barley, maize, rapeseed oil and sunflower oil. Wheat futures rose 5.5% in response to Russia ending the deal. Second, Russia has focused on targeting Ukraine’s electrical grid as winter approaches, in the hopes that the people of Ukraine put pressure on President Zelensky to end the war.
Ukraine continues to target Russian logistics to set the conditions for more counterattacks like the one in Kharkiv in September. Also, President Zelensky continues to mobilize western support for the defense of Ukraine. Finally, in a first in modern warfare, a combination of Ukrainian aerial and naval drones attacked the Russian fleet in Sevastopol. This attack damaged the Russian fleet and demonstrated Ukraine’s ability to attack targets in occupied Crimea.
Current Situation — Tactical Level
At the tactical level, the front lines have moved little over the past month. Ukraine continues to look for tactical victories before the winter sets in (For the next two weeks there will be highs in the 50s, lows in the 30s, and light rain). In the north, Russia has dug in along the Zherebets River, roughly along the border of Luhansk Oblast. Rumors of a Russian withdrawal from Kherson proved to be false. Further south in Donetsk Oblast, the front line has been deadlocked for four months. From the losses of equipment it was an incredibly tough month of fighting — Russia lost 186 tanks; Ukraine 63.
Total Russian BDA (As of October 31, 2022 at 15:00 EDT) From the Oryx Website (Captures total losses from February 24 onwards)
Key vehicles lost include:
1,419x T-72/80/90s Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (186 ⬆️ — all change numbers since October 3, 2022)
Average of 5.7x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
2,063x BMPs/BTRs/BMDs (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (305 ⬆️ )
Average of 8.2x BMPs/BTRs damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
235x Engineer Vehicles Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (17 ⬆️ )
552x Indirect Fire Systems (Mortars, Howitzers, and Multiple Rocket Launcher Systems) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (97 ⬆️ )
113x Air Defense Weapon Systems Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (9 ⬆️ )
480x MT-LBs (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (85 ⬆️)
Ukrainian BDA (As of October 31, 2022 at 1500 EDT From the Oryx Website)
It was a rough month for Ukraine’s military. Either there was more posting of Ukrainian vehicles lost on social media or September 2022 was one of the toughest months of fighting for the Ukrainian military. So far, Ukrainian forces have lost:
337x T-64/72/80 Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 63 since 3 OCT. This is triple the losses in September.)
Average of 1.4x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
562x BMP/BTR/BMD (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 175 since 3 OCT. This is 4x the losses in September)
163x Indirect Fire Systems (Howitzers and MRLS) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 30 since 3 OCT. This is 3.5x the losses in September)
47x MT-LB ACRV (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 9 since 3 OCT)
For More Information on the Conflict:
Invasion of Ukraine, River Crossing
BTGs, OoB, and Crowd Sourced BDA in Ukraine, D+11
Conclusion
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