Invasion of Ukraine, May 2023 SITREP (#263)
Today, May 2, 2023, is D+431 in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. This is the 33rd in my series on blog posts on the war — see all the war in Ukraine blog posts here. For those of you who have been following TFCG’s posts on Ukraine, I post once a month at the beginning of each month on the war. Today’s post updates the crowd sourced Battle Damage Assessment for the month of April 2023 and provides a fun story on a Russian tank spotted in Louisiana.
Only one takeaway today — the war of attrition in Ukraine continues. However, with the challenges with twitter and keeping up with the workload 14 months into the conflict, many of my sources have struggled to maintain their pace.
Yesterday, the Oryx Website reported that Russia has lost 1,911 tanks (5 since the last blog post — less than what Russia lost in March (I believe this is more of a reflection of the Oryx team not keeping up; not limited Russian losses)) since the war began. To put this in perspective — in the Active Duty US Army there are 12 Armored Brigade Combat Teams each with 87 tanks (1,044 M1A2 Abrams). If the United States lost the same amount of tanks in a conflict, every tank in all 12 of the active Armored Brigade Combat Teams would have been destroyed plus another ~9+ brigade’s worth of tanks (21 brigades worth of tanks in total). The Russian tank loss numbers are staggering.
Here is another historic perspective on tank losses. From June 6, 1944 through May 15, 1945 (343 Days) the United States lost ~7,000 (including ~4,347 M4 Sherman Tanks) tanks in the European Theater of Operations (think D-Day to the end of the war in northern Europe). That’s an average of 20.5 tanks per day. The Russians lost 0.2 tanks per day in Ukraine in the last 30 days and 4.4 tanks per day since the war began.
Current Situation — Strategic Level
The US Army defines the strategic level of war as the level of war that “involves national (or multinational) guidance and resources to achieve national- or theater-level objectives. The strategic level of analysis would analyze any actions taken that involve national (or multinational) guidance, resources, or objectives and end state.” For Russia, its strategic objectives remain recognition of the annexation of Crimea, Ukrainian rejection of NATO, the demilitarization of Ukrainian armed forces, and recognition of DPR and LPR as independent states. For Ukraine, its strategic objectives remain defeat of the Russian military, restoration of its borders, and a US/European security guarantee.
At the strategic level, Russia continued to look for ways to snatch some type of victory out of the jaws of defeat. They continue to try to put pressure on Ukraine to end the war. The Russians continue their offensive to seize the town of Bakhmut with little success. Ukraine continues to target Russian logistics with a combination of UAVs, long-range rockets, and sabotage to set the conditions for more counterattacks like the one we saw in Kharkiv in September.
At the strategic level, the war in Ukraine is a war of attrition. A war of attrition is a military strategy that aims to wear down an opponent's strength and resources over time, rather than achieving a quick and decisive victory. It involves a prolonged period of conflict in which both sides engage in a series of small-scale battles and skirmishes, in an effort to inflict as many casualties as possible on the enemy while minimizing one's own losses.
The goal of a war of attrition is to gradually weaken the opponent's ability to fight, by draining their manpower, supplies, and morale. This can be achieved through a variety of tactics, such as siege warfare, guerrilla tactics, and defensive strategies that aim to outlast the enemy's attacks.
Total Russian BDA (As of May 1, 2023 at 15:00 EDT) From the Oryx Website (Captures total losses from February 24, 2022 onwards)
Key vehicles lost include:
1,911x T-62/72/80/90s Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (5 ⬆️ — all change numbers since April 1, 2023)
Average of 4.4x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
2,824x BMPs/BTRs/BMDs (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (39 ⬆️ )
Average of 6.6x BMPs/BTRs damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
300x Engineer Vehicles Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (2 ⬆️ )
778x Indirect Fire Systems (Mortars, Howitzers, and Multiple Rocket Launcher Systems) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (26 ⬆️ )
146x Air Defense Weapon Systems Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (1 ⬆️ )
602x MT-LBs (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (19 ⬆️)
T-90 Tank Spotted in the United States
Howard Altman of The Drive broke a fun story on April 13, 2023 — a Russian T-90 tank that was captured in Ukraine was spotted at a truck stop in Louisiana. Altman broke the news that a Russian T-90A tank had been left overnight on a trailer at Peto’s Travel Center and Casino in Roanoke, Louisiana.
Here is the T-90A when it was captured in September 2022:
The T-90 tank was introduced into Russian Army service in the 1990s. It has a crew of 3, weighs 46 tons, has a 125mm main gun with an autoloader, and is powered by a 12 cylinder diesel engine. There were 417 T-90s in Russian service at the beginning of the war and the Oryx website is tracking 60 Russian T-90 tanks destroyed, damaged, or captured to date (14.4% losses).
The T-90A tank in Louisiana had its machine guns removed (typically T-90As are armed with a 12.7mm heavy machine gun and a 7.62mm PKMT). However, it still has several explosive reactive armor containers on the turret. Reactive armor is designed to explode when hit by an incoming projectile which prevents the incoming shell from penetrating the tank. The T-90A tank also still has the "dazzlers" from the Shorta-1 self protection system. The Shorta-1 is an electro-optical active protection system for tanks, designed to disrupt the laser designator and laser rangefinders of incoming anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs). The dazzlers (the boxes with the round circles on either side of the main gun tube) emit coded pulsed-IR jamming when an incoming ATGM has been detected.
A closer examination of the shipping label on the main gun barrel of the tank indicated that it had been shipped from Gdynia, Poland to Beaumont, Texas. It was in the process of being line hauled from Texas to the Aberdeen Testing Center in Aberdeen, Maryland. As some of you may know, the Aberdeen Testing Center’s (ATC) mission is to:
Provide test, and test support, services for authorized customers within and outside of DoD, including Government and non-Government organizations, domestic, and foreign.
Perform comprehensive test and training, both real and simulated.
Exploit emerging technologies.
It helps to know the capabilities of a potential adversaries equipment.
Here’s the link to the full story.
Ukrainian BDA (As of May 1, 2023 at 1500 EDT From the Oryx Website)
So far, Ukrainian forces have lost:
491x T-64/72/80 Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 2 since 1 APR.)
Average of 1.1x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
845x BMP/BTR/BMD (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 10 since 1 APR.)
304x Indirect Fire Systems (Howitzers and MRLS) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ XX since 1 APR)
74x MT-LB ACRV (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 0 since 1 APR)
For More Information on the Conflict:
BTGs, OoB, and Crowd Sourced BDA in Ukraine, D+11
Conclusion
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In the meantime, use your deeper awareness of the invasion of Ukraine to go on the offensive and follow the conflict with better insight.