Invasion of Ukraine, June 2023 SITREP (#267)
Today, May 30, 2023, is D+459 in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. This is the 34th in my series on blog posts on the war — see all the war in Ukraine blog posts here. For those of you who have been following TFCG’s posts on Ukraine, I post once a month at the beginning of each month on the war. Today’s post updates the crowd sourced Battle Damage Assessment for the month of May 2023 and provides a summary of Russian tactical evolution over the past year.
Only one takeaway today — the war of attrition in Ukraine continues with no real changes in the front lines.
Yesterday, the Oryx Website reported that Russia has lost 2,000 tanks (89 since the last blog post — more than what Russia lost in April) since the war began.
Here is another historic perspective on tank losses. From June 6, 1944 through May 15, 1945 (343 Days) the United States lost ~7,000 (including ~4,347 M4 Sherman Tanks) tanks in the European Theater of Operations (think D-Day to the end of the war in northern Europe). That’s an average of 20.5 tanks per day. The Russians lost 3.1 tanks per day in Ukraine in the last 30 days and 4.4 tanks per day since the war began.
Royal United Services Institute
The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) is the world's oldest and the United Kingdom’s leading defense and security think tank. Last week they published an assessment of how Russian forces have adapted their tactics in the Ukrainian conflict and the challenges this has created for the Ukrainian military that must be overcome. Here is the link to the entire report.
If you don’t have time to read the entire report, here are the seven biggest takeaways:
The Russian Battalion Tactical Group is no longer the unit of choice for the Russian Army. Company Assault Groups based around BTRs or BMPs have supplemented the BTG. I did posts on the BTG: BTGs, OoB, and Crowd Sourced BDA in Ukraine in the early days of the war,
Russian infantry has evolved into four categories —line (think BTR or BMP mounted troops that are primarily defensive), specialized (groups of snipers, artillery spotters, and mortar/antitank weapons which harass/attrit Ukrainian defenses), assault (think VDV (airborne) or naval infantry), and disposable (think poorly trained conscripts or former criminals) troops. The disposable infantry are used to probe Ukrainian defenses or act as shaping operations. Assault infantry typically tries to advance in company sized formations and in conjunction with Russian tanks, artillery, and mortar fire (i.e. combined arms) seize terrain. If the assault infantry seizes their objective they are replaced by line infantry to hold the position. The specialized infantry is used to attrit Ukrainian defensive formations and set the conditions for an assault.
Russian Tank rarely are used to create breakthroughs. Instead they are used as long range “snipers” or in an indirect fire mode. In the year+ of combat, Russian tanks have added thermal camouflage to increase their survivability. The thermal camouflage helps against UAVs and anti-tank weapons.
Engineers are one of the Russian Army’s strong suits. They have done an excellent job building fortifications, minefields, and complex obstacles to support the line infantry defenses.
Russian artillery has improved its ability to use multiple UAVs as spotters. They have also improved their ability to fire and move to increase their survivability.
Russian forces continue to use firepower to compensate for other tactical shortcomings. It is estimated that Russia is shooting 20,000 rounds of artillery and mortars per day (projected to fire 7,000,000 rounds in 2023). This is down from 40,000 rounds of artillery and mortars fired per day in 2022 (estimated 12 million rounds total fired in 2022). There are rumors that Russia has had to turn to North Korea for artillery rounds and artillery tubes.
Russian command and control headquarters have withdrawn out of GMLRS range, taken the command posts out of tents/vehicles and put them in buildings, and hardwired the communication between headquarters. This has been done to increase their survivability.
Total Russian BDA (As of May 29, 2023 at 15:00 EDT) From the Oryx Website (Captures total losses from February 24, 2022 onwards)
Key vehicles lost include:
2,000x T-62/72/80/90s Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (89 ⬆️ — all change numbers since May 1, 2023)
Average of 4.4x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
2,901x BMPs/BTRs/BMDs (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (77 ⬆️ )
Average of 6.3x BMPs/BTRs damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
306x Engineer Vehicles Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (6 ⬆️ )
778x Indirect Fire Systems (Mortars, Howitzers, and Multiple Rocket Launcher Systems) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (53 ⬆️ )
155x Air Defense Weapon Systems Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (9 ⬆️ )
618x MT-LBs (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (16 ⬆️)
Ukrainian BDA (As of May 29, 2023 at 1500 EDT From the Oryx Website)
So far, Ukrainian forces have lost:
506x T-64/72/80 Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 15 since 1 MAY)
Average of 1.1x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
880x BMP/BTR/BMD (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 35)
330x Indirect Fire Systems (Howitzers and MRLS) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 26)
87x MT-LB ACRV (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 13)
For More Information on the Conflict:
BTGs, OoB, and Crowd Sourced BDA in Ukraine, D+11
Conclusion
Want even more? Reach out to me me here for a virtual talk to your group or company on the Invasion of Ukraine and its tactical and strategic implications.
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In the meantime, use your deeper awareness of the invasion of Ukraine to go on the offensive and follow the conflict with better insight.