Invasion of Ukraine, January and 2022 SITREP (#246)
Today, January 3, 2022, is D+312 in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. For those of you who have been following TFCG’s posts on Ukraine, I post once a month at the beginning of each month on the war. Today’s post provides an update, as well as continues the crowd sourced Battle Damage Assessment update of the entire Russian Invasion of Ukraine for the month of December and for all of 2022.
Two takeaways — the meat grinder of the war in Ukraine continues and December was not a big month for vehicle losses on either side.
Yesterday, the Oryx Website reported that Russia has lost 1,600 tanks (62 over the month of December — about half of what Russia lost in November) since the war began. To put this in perspective — in the Active Duty US Army there are 12 Armored Brigade Combat Teams each with 87 tanks (1,044 M1A2 Abrams). If the United States lost the same amount of tanks in a conflict, every tank in all 12 of the active Armored Brigade Combat Teams would have been destroyed plus another ~6+ brigade’s worth of tanks. The Russian tank loss numbers are staggering.
Here is a historic perspective on tank losses. From June 6, 1944 through May 15, 1945 the United States lost ~7,000 (including ~4,347 M4 Sherman Tanks) tanks in the European Theater of Operations (think D-Day to the end of the war in northern Europe). That’s an average of 20.5 tanks per day. The Russians lost 1.8 tanks per day in Ukraine in the month of December.
Current Situation — Strategic Level
The US Army defines the strategic level of war as the level of war that “involves national (or multinational) guidance and resources to achieve national- or theater-level objectives. The strategic level of analysis would analyze any actions taken that involve national (or multinational) guidance, resources, or objectives and end state.” For Russia, its strategic objectives remain recognition of the annexation of Crimea, Ukrainian rejection of NATO, the demilitarization of Ukrainian armed forces, and recognition of DPR and LPR as independent states. For Ukraine, its strategic objectives remain defeat of the Russian military, restoration of its borders, and a US/European security guarantee.
At the strategic level, Russia continued to look for ways to snatch some type of victory out of the jaws of defeat. They continue to try to put pressure on Ukraine to end the war. Ukraine continues to target Russian logistics to set the conditions for more counterattacks like the one we saw in Kharkiv in September.
Total Russian BDA (As of January 2, 2023 at 15:00 EDT) From the Oryx Website (Captures total losses from February 24 onwards)
Key vehicles lost include:
1,600x T-62/72/80/90s Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (62 ⬆️ — all change numbers since December 6, 2022)
Average of 5.1x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
2,351x BMPs/BTRs/BMDs (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (85 ⬆️ )
Average of 7.5x BMPs/BTRs damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
261x Engineer Vehicles Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (14 ⬆️ )
619x Indirect Fire Systems (Mortars, Howitzers, and Multiple Rocket Launcher Systems) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (No Change)
123x Air Defense Weapon Systems Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (4 ⬆️ )
532x MT-LBs (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (16 ⬆️)
I thought it would be fun to compare the Russian losses as reported by the Oryx website (which I trust since each one has a picture on social media) against the Russian losses reported by Ukraine’s government (which I don’t trust as much) over the past 10 months:
Russian losses as reported by Oryx and Ukraine’s government
Ukrainian BDA (As of January 2, 2023 at 1500 EDT From the Oryx Website)
So far, Ukrainian forces have lost:
439x T-64/72/80 Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 3 since 6 DEC.)
Average of 1.4x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started
717x BMP/BTR/BMD (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 155 since 6 DEC.)
211x Indirect Fire Systems (Howitzers and MRLS) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 10 since 6 DEC)
62x MT-LB ACRV (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 3 since 6 DEC)
For More Information on the Conflict:
Invasion of Ukraine, River Crossing
BTGs, OoB, and Crowd Sourced BDA in Ukraine, D+11
Conclusion
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Use your deeper awareness of the invasion of Ukraine to go on the offensive and follow the conflict with better insight.