Today, February 7, 2023, is D+348 in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. For those of you who have been following TFCG’s posts on Ukraine, I post once a month at the beginning of each month on the war. Today’s post updates the crowd sourced Battle Damage Assessment for the month of January 2023, as well as changes in territorial control.

Three takeaways — the meat grinder of the war in Ukraine continues, January was not a big month for vehicle losses on either side, and there were small changes in the front lines in December and January.

Yesterday, the Oryx Website reported that Russia has lost 1,673 tanks (73 over the month of January — about the same as what Russia lost in December) since the war began. To put this in perspective — in the Active Duty US Army there are 12 Armored Brigade Combat Teams each with 87 tanks (1,044 M1A2 Abrams). If the United States lost the same amount of tanks in a conflict, every tank in all 12 of the active Armored Brigade Combat Teams would have been destroyed plus another ~7+ brigade’s worth of tanks (19 brigades worth of tanks in total). The Russian tank loss numbers are staggering.

Here is another historic perspective on tank losses. From June 6, 1944 through May 15, 1945 (343 Days) the United States lost ~7,000 (including ~4,347 M4 Sherman Tanks) tanks in the European Theater of Operations (think D-Day to the end of the war in northern Europe). That’s an average of 20.5 tanks per day. The Russians lost 2.3 tanks per day in Ukraine in the month of January and 4.8 tanks per day since the war began.

Current Situation — Strategic Level

The US Army defines the strategic level of war as the level of war that “involves national (or multinational) guidance and resources to achieve national- or theater-level objectives. The strategic level of analysis would analyze any actions taken that involve national (or multinational) guidance, resources, or objectives and end state.” For Russia, its strategic objectives remain recognition of the annexation of Crimea, Ukrainian rejection of NATO, the demilitarization of Ukrainian armed forces, and recognition of DPR and LPR as independent states. For Ukraine, its strategic objectives remain defeat of the Russian military, restoration of its borders, and a US/European security guarantee.

At the strategic level, Russia continued to look for ways to snatch some type of victory out of the jaws of defeat. They continue to try to put pressure on Ukraine to end the war. Ukraine continues to target Russian logistics to set the conditions for more counterattacks like the one we saw in Kharkiv in September.

Jomini of the West (@JominiW) is back on Twitter in 2023 with his outstanding maps and summary of the strategic situation. Take a look at the strategic picture as of January 31, 2023. As Jomini states “The first month of 2023 saw a determined effort by the… [Russian Army] to finally seize control of Bakhmut in central Donetsk, blunt… [Ukrainian] advances in Luhansk, and expand territorial control in Zaporizhzhia.”

Total Russian BDA (As of February 6, 2023 at 15:00 EDT) From the Oryx Website (Captures total losses from February 24, 2022 onwards)

Key vehicles lost include:

• 1,673x T-62/72/80/90s Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (73 ⬆️ — all change numbers since January 2, 2022)

  • Average of 4.8x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started

• 2,494x BMPs/BTRs/BMDs (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (143 ⬆️ )

  • Average of 7.2x BMPs/BTRs damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started

• 268x Engineer Vehicles Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (7 ⬆️ )

• 666x Indirect Fire Systems (Mortars, Howitzers, and Multiple Rocket Launcher Systems) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (47 ⬆️ )

• 131x Air Defense Weapon Systems Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (8 ⬆️ )

• 551x MT-LBs (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (19 ⬆️)

Ukrainian BDA (As of February 6, 2023 at 1500 EDT From the Oryx Website)

So far, Ukrainian forces have lost:

• 459x T-64/72/80 Tanks Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 20 since 2 JAN.)

  • Average of 1.3x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day since the invasion started

• 779x BMP/BTR/BMD (Armored Personnel Carriers) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 62 since 2 JAN.)

• 211x Indirect Fire Systems (Howitzers and MRLS) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 10 since 2 JAN)

• 66x MT-LB ACRV (Command and Control) Destroyed, Captured, or Abandoned (⬆️ 4 since 2 JAN)

Territory

Before 2014, the country of Ukraine was 603, 550 km2 in size. Russia current occupies 105,117 km2 of Ukrainian territory or 17.4%. Ukraine hold 498,433km2. The front lines did not move much over the last two months: Ukraine recaptured 50 km2 in December 2022 while Russia captured 600km2 in January 2023.

For More Information on the Conflict:

Ukraine SITREP, January 2023

Ukraine SITREP, December

Invasion of Ukraine, River Crossing

BTGs, OoB, and Crowd Sourced BDA in Ukraine, D+11

Conclusion

Want even more? Reach out to me me here for a virtual talk to your group or company on the Invasion of Ukraine and its tactical and strategic implications.

Interested in having a Leadership Experience that uses history and its leadership examples, like General Eisenhower at D-Day, to enhance your team’s leadership today? TFCG offers the D-Day, Market-Garden, and Battle of the Bulge Leadership Experiences in Europe and the War in the Pacific Museum and Pearl Harbor Leadership Experiences in the United States. Send me an email and we can start the discussion today about building better leaders in your organization using a historic Leadership Experience.

In the meantime, use your deeper awareness of the invasion of Ukraine to go on the offensive and follow the conflict with better insight.