Today, May 24, 2022, is D+89 in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. This blog post discusses the phases of the war in Ukraine and an impending transition to a new phase. It also continues the crowd sourced Battle Damage Assessment update of Phase II of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

Phases of the War

The US Army defines a phase as “a planning and execution tool used to divide an operation in duration or activity.” After almost three months of war, the war in Ukraine has had two distinct phases and is about to enter a third. Transition between phases is always challenging because it may mark a change in focus, tactics, or logistics for both sides.

Phase I — Russian Invasion (Russian Maneuver Offensive) — February 24, 2022-April 8, 2022

The invasion began on February 24, 2022. This phase was characterized as a war of maneuver. Russia attempted to capture Kyiv but was rebuffed. Key events included the massacre at Bucha, the fighting around and capture of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and the isolation of Mariupol. Other notable incidents were the heroic Ukrainian stand on Snake Island and the “Ghost of Kyiv” shooting down dozens of Russian jets (The Ghost of Kyiv was later revealed to be the collective image of the pilots of the 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade defending the sky of the capital.

Phase II — Russian Donbas Focus (Limited Russian Offensive) — April 9, 2022 — TBD

On April 9, 2022, Russia changed its goals to a limited offensive in Donbas and changed out some of its key leaders. Key events during this phase included Russia completing its withdrawal from Kyiv, the Russian naval ship Moskva being sunk, Russian mopping up operations around Mariupol, and Russian offensive operations to seize Popasna. Ukrainian forces were able to defeat three Russian attempts to cross the Siversky Donets River (including destroying most of a Battalion Tactical Group) and conduct a counterattack to seize terrain east of Kharkiv.

As the war drags on, both sides have had significant attrition — Russia has lost 695 tanks since the war began; Ukraine has lost 176 tanks.

Remember the BTG? I talked about it in my first blog post on Ukraine — BTGs, OoB, and Crowd Sourced BDA in Ukraine, D+11. If you didn’t read it, the BTG or Battalion Tactical Group is the Russian Army’s basic fighting unit. I talked about it in It has 10 tanks, 30 infantry fighting vehicles, and about 700 soldiers in it. If you want to read a great thread on Russian BTG logistic challenges, check out Henry Schlottman on Twitter (@HN_Schlottman). His very detailed research concludes that it takes 14 cargo truck loads and 3 tanker trucks per day to resupply a BTG in the fight.

Phase II Current Situation — Big Picture

Jomini of the West’s (Twitter @JominiW) gave a great update last night. Here is his summary from May 22, 2022, where he states “The past 9 days has seen one of the most fluid periods to date in the Russo-Ukrainian War. The most significant developments have been the surrender of Ukrainian forces in Mariupol & the Russian breakthrough around Popasna.”

In Donetsk, he states “Despite continued heavy losses in the Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD, Russian forces have successfully achieved a localized breakthrough in the Popasna area as well as numerous incremental gains along the Izium & Lyman axes and between Horlivka & Donetsk. The Russian MoD allocated a small operational maneuver group (OMG) of its most capable forces to punch through the secondary Popasna defensive line and exploit this breach toward Soladar in the west and Lysychansik to the north, likely with the intent of forming a cauldron. Russian forces appear to be leveraging the advantage of Luhansk’s dense rail network to keep forward forces adequately supplied. The OMG in Popasna has made better use of combined arms, a doctrinal approach to breaching prepared defenses, and integrating new combat assets.”

Phase III — Trench Warfare (Russian Defense) — TBD

At some point in time in the next eight weeks, the Russians will not have enough combat power (combat power is the total means of destructive, constructive, and information capabilities that a military unit or formation can apply at a given time) to continue their even limited offensive operations. Both sides may assume a World War I-like trench warfare posture. Ukraine may be able to generate enough combat power to conduct limited offensive operations that regain lost territory like they have been able to do recently in the area east of Kharkiv.

Russian BDA (As of May 30, 2022 at 15:00 EDT the Oryx Website (Only captures losses from April 9 onwards))

Tracking the Russian BDA in Phase II (the battle in eastern Ukraine) is a combination of art and science. From April 9, 2022, I believe that Russian forces have lost over 723 major combat systems in Phase II. Key vehicles lost include:

• 219 Losses (24 ⬆️) out of an estimated 675x T-72/80/90s Tanks — 32.4% Losses (Destroyed)

  • Average of 5.1x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day of Phase II

• 324 Losses (48 ⬆️ )out of an estimated 2,227x BMPs/BTRs/BMDs (Armored Personnel Carriers) — 14.5% Losses (Neutralized)

  • Average of 8.2x BMPs/BTRs damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day of Phase II

• 35 Losses (No Change) out of an estimated 282x BAT-2s and 188x IMR-2s (Engineer Vehicles) — 9.5% Losses (Suppressed)

• 50 Losses (9 ⬆️ ) out of an estimated 405x 152 mm 2S19 Msta and 405x BM-21 122mm MLRS (Field Artillery) — 6.2% Losses (Suppressed)

• 16 Losses (5 ⬆️ ) out of an estimated 202x Pantsir-S1 (SAMs/ADA) — 7.9% Losses (Suppressed)

• 79 MT-LB Losses (6 ⬆️) out of an estimated 472x MT-LB ACRV (Command and Control) — 16.7% Losses (Neutralized)

There have not been regular updates or reports on casualties. Until there are updated reports, I will continue to provide this for some perspective:

On April 25, 2022 the UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace stated that “over 15,000 Russian soldiers were killed in Ukraine.”

In addition, there may be another 30,000 Russian soldiers wounded, captured, or missing. Casualties are all soldiers killed, wounded, captured, or missing. With an estimated 190,000 Russian soldiers participating in the invasion — this would represent 23.6% casualties (which, by the way, is in line with the total amount of key ground vehicles lost by the Russian Army).

Ukrainian BDA (As of May 30, 2022 at 1500 EDT the Oryx Website. Captures total losses.)

I did not reset the Ukrainian data for Phase II. However, it is a good start point to understand how things are going for Ukraine. So far, according to Oryx, Ukrainian forces have lost:

• 176 Losses (13 ⬆️ ) out of an estimated 630x T-64/80s Tanks — 27.9% Losses (Neutralized)

• 246 Losses (14 ⬆️) out of an estimated 2,215x BMPs/BTRs/BMDs (Armored Personnel Carriers) — 11.1% Losses (Neutralized)

• 76 Losses (2 ⬆️) out of an estimated 306x 152 mm 2S19 Msta and 306x BM-21 122mm MLRS (Field Artillery) — 12.4% Losses (Neutralized)

• 15 MT-LB Losses (No Change) out of an estimated 476x MT-LB ACRV (Command and Control) — 3.1% Losses (Suppressed)

Once again, there have not been regular updates or reports on casualties. Until there are updated reports, I will continue to provide this for some perspective:

President Zelenskyy said during an April 15, 2022 interview with CNN that over 2,750 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed (US estimates were 3,000) and over 10,000 wounded. This number does not include civilian casualties.

More Information on the Conflict:

Invasion of Ukraine, D+82 SITREP

Invasion of Ukraine, D+75, SITREP

Leading During the Crisis in Ukraine and D+67 SITREP

Invasion of Ukraine, D+60, SITREP

BTGs, OoB, and Crowd Sourced BDA in Ukraine, D+11

Conclusion

Want even more? Reach out to me me here for a virtual talk to your group or company on the Invasion of Ukraine and its tactical and strategic implications. Just did a great talk with some banking executives from the midwest.

Want something different? In my day job, I’m an executive coach and leadership consultant. I published a book last summer on how to develop your perseverance and accomplish your goals — Grow Your Grit, available for sale at Amazon. Or reach out to me here to start the discussion about executive coaching opportunities.

I was on the Ask Valor Masterminds podcast last week with their incredible hosts Galan Ruelos & Joe Zeman. It was a really fun show. Here is the link — check it out.

Use your deeper awareness of the invasion of Ukraine to go on the offensive and follow the conflict with better insight.