The Stockdale Paradox (#67)
As fall is quickly moving towards winter and we continue to deal with the coronavirus, it is worth visiting the Stockdale Paradox. I’ve talked extensively about perseverance in the blog — see Work the Problem (#2), Perseverance (#42), and the Don Beebe Award (#61). But I didn’t get the essence of perseverance in tough situations down as succinctly as Vice Admiral Stockdale did with his paradox.
Vice Admiral James Bond Stockdale was a United States Naval Academy and Stanford graduate who served as a naval aviator for 37 years. Shot down in his A-4 Skyhawk over North Vietnam in 1965, he was the senior naval prisoner of war in Hanoi for over seven years. He was tortured and kept in solitary confinement routinely. Nevertheless, Stockdale received the Medal of Honor for leading the resistance amongst the American prisoners of war against their North Vietnamese captors. After retiring from the Navy in 1979, he was President of the Citadel, author, college professor, and as a Third-Party Candidate for Vice-President in 1992. You may remember him from the Vice-Presidential debate where he famously asked “Who am I? Why am I here?” when asked to make an opening statement. He died in 2005.
Jim Collins interviewed Vice Admiral Stockdale for his book Good to Great. Collins asked Stockdale, “Who didn’t make it out” of the prisoner of war camps in North Vietnam?
Stockdale replied “The optimists. Oh, they were the ones who said, ‘We’re going to be out by Christmas.’ And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then they’d say, ‘We’re going to be out by Easter.’ And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken heart….
This is a very important lesson. You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end — which you can never afford to lose — with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”
The essence of the Stockdale Paradox is when confronted with a tough situation a person must have the faith that they will persevere while having the discipline to confront the brutal facts of the current reality. It is tough to balance and keep both those ideas in perspective.
We continue to be in a tough situation right now. Early on I talked about how long it might last (September 2021 before the vaccine is available — #3) and the stages of the pandemic (#18). Unfortunately we still have a long road in front of us. You may have friends that are doing great keeping the two ideas in perspective or you may have friends that are struggling with balancing the two ideas. I know I do.
Just because you’re tired of dealing with the virus doesn’t mean the virus is tired. As we close out 2020 and enter into 2021, it is worthwhile to make sure you are using the Stockdale Paradox — you will persevere while simultaneously keep working the problems that you are confronted with.