The Next Crisis (#23)
Since the 1970s, crises have caused unexpected shifts in the world on a regular basis. Remember the 1974 oil crisis, the Savings and Loan Crisis of the late 1980s, the dot com bubble, 9/11, Hurricane Katrina, the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, and now the coronavirus crisis all impacted the economy and society in unexpected ways. And, unfortunately for all of us, there are going to be more unexpected shifts caused by crises in the future.
As you’re working your way through the COVID-19 crisis and its personal and financial impacts, you may find yourself wondering “Am I prepared for the next crisis?” No matter what the future crisis, you can take some of the lessons you’ve learned from the past three months and apply them to the planning for the future.
The three biggest lessons that I have seen in the current crisis:
There was little to no planning in many businesses for any significant difference in the future, especially a global pandemic
There was no plan for an economic contraction of 20%, 30%, or even 40%;
There was not a significant amount of planning put into making the company work remotely.
You can’t plan for every crisis. But the act of putting plans together for the top two to three crises you and your business could expect in the next five years will provide a huge return when the expected or the unexpected crisis hits.
Your business isn’t the same as anyone else’s. You may be on the coast and need a hurricane plan. You may need a fire evacuation plan. You may need a cyber attack/hacking response plan. Your challenges, business model, and employees are unique to you. However, your crisis plan should be three things: feasible, scalable, and proactive.
First, your plan should be feasible. Can you operate your business within the resource and time limitations? For example, if you’re a manufacturer and your crisis plan is that everyone will work remotely, that is not a feasible plan. Plan for what works for you and how you can most effectively mitigate the risks associated with crisis.
Second, your plan should be scalable. Can you operate with 10%, 15%, or 25% less of your workforce? You don’t want to put yourself into a corner with an all or nothing approach. A phased response based on specific conditions may help limit your losses, maintain productivity, and ultimately save your business. The Bump Plan concept we discussed in post #19 is one such example.
Third, your plan should be proactive. Does the plan balance cost, risk, and opportunities that could be gained? One big “aha!” moment a lot of leaders discovered during our current crisis is this: if we had been ready to pivot to a more virtual environment could our could have maintained our sales or even increased profits relative to our competitors? Your plan should be intentional and specific with the right balance amongst cost, risk, and the potential advantaged gained or potential advantage lost.
Finally, once you have determined the top two to three crisis and developed plans to deal with them you must rehearse the plan. Like Rick Rescorla with Morgan Stanley at the Twin Towers you need to rehearse the plan. Rick’s actions and dedication to rehearsing the fire evacuation plan for his team (which put him in conflict with several chief executives) from the Twin Towers saved lives on 9/11.
Red Teaming (see post #15 — https://www.thefivecoatconsultinggroup.com/the-coronavirus-crisis/red-teaming ), developing the Bump Plan (see post #19 —https://www.thefivecoatconsultinggroup.com/the-coronavirus-crisis/the-bump-plan ), Scenario Planning, and rehearsals are all tools that businesses can use to better prepare for the unexpected.
Contact TFCG and see if we can assist your team with doing better planning for the next crisis.