Planning (#3)
As we "work the problem" and lead your team through the coronavirus crisis, it is worth sharing a military concept that may help you develop a planning horizon. Military planners typically plan operations against two things that the enemy can do: the Enemy's Most Likely Course of Action and the Enemy's Most Dangerous Course of Action.
For the 2010 Afghanistan elections, 3rd Battalion, 187th Infantry Regiment based our plans to provide security against the Taliban’s Most Likely Course of Action which was to suppress the vote. But we also had to prepare for the Taliban’s Most Dangerous Course of Action which was to suppress the vote and vigorously attack both Afghan government and US forces in the province. In the end, less than a handful of people voted in our districts and there were 18 attacks that day (the most the battalion had in one day that year) — the Taliban executed their Most Dangerous Course of Action. Fortunately we had planned for it, but it still was one of the toughest days we had the entire tour.
In the case of the coronavirus crisis, each of the “enemy's” scenarios are time based. Good planners should develop options for their families, teams, and companies against both scenarios, enabling them to have the courage to act in uncertainty. There are several options for you to develop your team’s plans against:
The Coronavirus's Most Likely Course of Action (Example (Time frame) -- Operationalized Date from March 16, 2020):
Mimics Wuhan, China 2020 Lockdown, January 23 - March 14 (7 weeks) -- May 4, 2020
Mimics the first wave of the Spanish Influenza, June-August 1918 (8 weeks) -- May 11, 2020
US Schools Out for the Rest of the Year 2020 (11 weeks) -- May 25, 2020
Mimics the Entire Spanish Influenza Pandemic, June 1918- April 1919 (9.5 Months) -- December 28, 2020
The Coronavirus's Most Dangerous Course of Action (Example (Time frame) -- Operationalized Date from March 16, 2020):
Nationwide Development of Herd Immunity and Vaccine, Imperial College Paper (18 Months) -- September 13, 2021
* Assumptions: I based the start date for all models as March 16, 2020.
Some questions for you and your family, team, and company to think about as you develop your plan:
What do I believe are the Coronavirus’s Most Likely and Most Dangerous Course of Action?
What parts of my plan would apply to both scenarios?
What is my trigger to understand that the crisis is moving from the Most Likely to the Most Dangerous?
What (and when) do I implement if the Coronavirus follows the Most Dangerous Course of Action?
Some of you may have already done some planning -- what scenarios did you base your plan upon?
United States Coronavirus Cases, March 22, 2020 — 33,073
A resource that models the number of coronavirus cases your state could have: