BTGs, OoB, and Crowd Sourced BDA in Ukraine (#306)
Note: This blog post was done entirely from open-source intelligence
This article was released on March 8, 2022 — To See All the Ukraine Blog Posts Click
The 21st century has been full of conflict. From Kosovo to the Horn of Africa, to Afghanistan, to Iraq, to Syria, and now Ukraine the battlefield keeps changing and evolving. Many of you have been following the events in Ukraine extremely closely. To help you make better sense of the situation in Ukraine, I’m going to introduce you to three military terms — Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs), Order of Battle (OoB), and Crowd-Sourced Battle Damage Assessments (BDA) — which will help deepen your understanding of the invasion. Along the way, you’ll also get a better grasp of one way that the US Army looks at measuring how the war is going.
Battalion Tactical Group (BTGs)
A Battalion Tactical Group, or BTG, is the primary combined-arms maneuver unit used by the Russian Army. In NATO militaries, this grouping would be called a Task Force. (I wrote an article about Task Forces (corporate people might call this a matrix’ed organization) last year). A typical BTG is comprised of one tank company, three infantry companies, one Anti-Tank (AT) missile company, one engineer company, two field artillery batteries, and one Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) Battery. Each BTG has approximately 600 soldiers assigned to it. A Russian tank company typically has 10 tanks. A Russian infantry company typically has 10 BTR-80s or 10 BMP-3s.
BTGs formed the mainstay of Russia's military intervention in Ukraine from 2013–2015 and now in 2022. In other words, the BTGs are the “tip of the spear” for the conventional Russian military. As of August 2021, Russia had approximately 170 BTGs scattered across the country.
The diagram below depicts the organization of a typical BTG.
BTG Sub Units:
To further understand the BTG, let’s look at each subunit in detail. The subunits in a Battalion Tactical Group are BTG’s command and control, one tank company, three infantry companies, one Anti-Tank (AT) missile company, one engineer company, two field artillery batteries, and one Surface to Air Missile (SAM) Battery. A company or a battery is an organization of about 50-100 people.
BTG Command and Control: 3x MT-LB for the BTG commander and his staff.
Total: 3x MT-LBs
One Tank Company — A Russian Tank Company typically has 30 soldiers who man 10x T-72B3 tanks.
Total: 10x T-72B3s (-72, -80, -90)
Three Infantry Companies — A Russian Infantry Company typically has 50 soldiers who work out of 10x BMP-3s or BTR-80s Armored Personnel Carriers.
Total: 33x BMPs (-1,-2,-3) or BTR-80s
AT Company — A Russian Anti-Tank (AT) Missile Company typically has 4x BMP-3s type-vehicles armed with the AT-11 “Sniper” or AT-14 “Spriggan” Anti-Tank guided missiles (Shturm-S ATGM Carrier).
Total: 4x BMP-3s w/ AT-14s (Shturm-S ATGM Carrier)
One Engineer Company — Engineer Companies can be task organized to support proposed BTG missions. Most Engineer companies have 3x BAT-2 and 2x IMR-2
Total: 3x BAT-2s and 2x IMR-2s
Two Field Artillery Batteries — A Russian Field Artillery Battery typically has 6x 152mm self propelled howitzers (6x 2S19 Msta) and 2x MT-LBu ACRVs (commander and fire direction center). A Russian Multiple Launch Rocket System Battery typically has 6x 122mm BM-21 Grad rocket systems along with support trucks.
Total: 6 x 152 mm 2S19 Msta + 2x MT-LB ACRV + 6x BM-21 122mm MLRS
One Surface to Air Missile (SAM) or Air Defense Artillery (ADA) Battery — A Russian SAM Battery typically has 6x anti-aircraft systems in it. A Pantsir-S1 equipped battery has 6 trucks, each which has 2x 30mm cannons and 12 x 57E6-E Surface to Air Missiles.
Total: 6x Pantsir-S1 + 2x MT-LB ACRV
So, the total vehicles in a Prototypical BTG = 33x BMPs, 10x T-72s, 4x Shturm-S ATGM Carrier, 3x BAT-2s and 2x IMR-2s, 6 x 152 mm 2S19 Msta, 6x BM-21 122mm MLRS, 6x Pantsir-S1, and 7x MT-LB ACRV. There would be approximately 600 soldiers in the BTG.
Here is a good graphic that depicts the range of the weapon systems in the BTG:
Order of Battle
The order of battle tries to depict the hierarchical organization, command structure, strength, disposition of personnel, and disposition of equipment of military units participating in a military operation. Corporate types would recognize this as an org chart. For the purpose of this blog post, I’m only going to focus on the Order of Battle/potential disposition of the Russian military equipment involved in the invasion of Ukraine.
The Institute for the Study of War is a Washington, DC based think-tank that has tracked wars for the past two decades. On January 25, 2022, ISW assessed that there were at least 66 BTGs postured around Ukraine.
I’m going to make the assumption that ISW didn’t get their picture exactly right and that Russia moved a few more units into the region to participate in the invasion from January 26 to February 23. If Russia invaded the Ukraine with 75x BTGs, there would be approximately:
750x T-72/80/90 Tanks
2,475x BMPs/BTRs (Armored Personnel Carriers),
300x Shturm-S ATGM Carriers
225x BAT-2s and 150x IMR-2s (Engineer Vehicles)
450 x 152 mm 2S19 Msta
450x BM-21 122mm MLRS
450x Pantsir-S1
525x MT-LB ACRV
in the invasion force. There would also be about 45,000 troops in the BTG formations. The rest of the Russian invasion force (reported to be over 100,000+) is in the support forces. Jomini of the West (@JominiW on Twitter) put together the great map of the Russian Invasion Plan.
Crowd Sourcing Battle Damage Assessment
The invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022. Each day the conflict continues, both Russian and Ukrainian forces lose vehicles from combat. These vehicles were destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured in battle. Battle Damage Assessment, or BDA, is “the estimate of damage composed of physical and functional damage assessment, as well as target system assessment, resulting from the application of lethal or nonlethal military force.” In the old days, the Battalion or Brigade Intelligence Officer had to collect reports from helicopter pilots, Air Force pilots, forward observers, and ground forces who engaged the enemy. Based on these reports, the Intelligence Officer would make an assessment of how badly the enemy had been damaged by the actions of friendly forces.
Stijn Mitzer, along with Joost Oliemans, Kemal Janovsky, Dan Janovsky, and Jakub Janovsky, have taken this idea into the 21st Century. The five people are attempting to crowdsource battle damage assessments in real-time from both the Russian and Ukrainian armed forces during the invasion of Ukraine on The Oryx Website. The team finds photos of destroyed, abandoned, and captured vehicles and then tries to count them based on the vehicle type. They also categorize them based on the vehicle being destroyed, abandoned, or captured. The team does its best to make sure that they are not counting the same vehicle twice and are updating it daily. Check it out yourself — the link to their regularly updated article is here.
As of March 7, 2022, at 3:00 PM EST the Oryx Website assesses that the Russian forces have lost (the numbers had already changed before I finished writing the post):
140 Tanks (T-72s, 80s, and 90s — 42 destroyed, 2 damaged, 26 abandoned, and 69 captured)
181 Armored Personnel Carriers (BMPs or BTRs — 65 destroyed, 35 abandoned, and 81 captured)
2 Shtrum-S ATGM Carriers (1 destroyed and 1 abandoned)
36 Engineering Vehicles (including 1x BAT-2, 1x IMR-2)
63 Field Artillery pieces (including 9x 2S19 Mstas and 16x 122mm BM-21 Grads)
23 SAM Systems (including 4x Pantsir-S1s)
63 MT-LB (17 destroyed, 12 abandoned, and 34 captured)
Advanced BDA:
Just counting damaged, destroyed, and captured vehicles in Basic BDA. Taking the raw numbers and then assessing the impact on the invasion force is Advanced BDA. Advanced BDA helps military leaders understand the context and make better decisions.
The military uses three categories to measure the impact on enemy units: suppressed, neutralized, or destroyed. As you would expect, each of these terms has a military definition. Suppress is a tactical mission task that results in temporary degradation of the performance of a force or weapons system below the level needed to accomplish its mission. It is the lowest level and typically equates to 3% of a friendly or enemy unit’s equipment being destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured. Neutralize is a tactical mission task that results in rendering enemy personnel or materiel incapable of interfering with a particular operation. It is in the middle and usually equates to 10% of a friendly or enemy unit’s equipment being destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured. Destroy is a tactical mission task that physically renders an enemy force combat-ineffective until it is reconstituted. It is the highest level and usually equals to 30% of a friendly or enemy unit’s equipment being destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured.
Remember the order of battle of the invasion force? I will use the OoB numbers as our denominator, as I try to figure out if the Russians are suppressed (3%), neutralized (10%), or destroyed (30%) as part of the Advanced BDA process. This helps to provide context for the losses reported on the web. Based on the crowd-sourced losses on the Oryx website on March 7, 2022:
140 Losses out of an estimated 750x T-72/80/90s Tanks — 18.6% Losses (Neutralized)
An average of 12x tanks damaged, destroyed, abandoned, and captured per day of the conflict
181 Losses out of an estimated 2,475x BMPs/BTRs (Armored Personnel Carriers) — 7.3% Losses (Suppressed)
Average of 15x BMPs/BTRs damaged, destroyed, abandoned, and captured per day of the conflict
2 Losses out of an estimated 300x Shturm-S ATGM Carriers — .6% Losses (No impact)
26 Losses out of an estimated 225x BAT-2s and 150x IMR-2s (Engineer Vehicles) — 6.9% Losses (Suppressed)
63 Losses out of an estimated 450x 152 mm 2S19 Msta and 450x BM-21 122mm MLRS (Field Artillery) — 7% Losses (Suppressed)
23 Losses out of an estimated 450x Pantsir-S1 (SAMs) — 5% Losses (Suppressed)
63 MT-LB out of an estimated 525x MT-LB ACRV (Command and Control) — 12% Losses (Neutralized)
Average of 5x MT-LBs damaged, destroyed, abandoned and captured per day of the conflict
So what, right? Neither the crowd-sourced BDA nor the OoB is perfect. But it gives me, and hopefully you, a better understanding that the Russians’ tank and command and control (MT-LB) forces have suffered pretty significant losses. The rest of the BTGs have also taken a hit, especially the artillery. But, the Russian SAMs seem to be relatively intact, which means that the Ukrainian Air Force will continue to have a tough time attacking the Russian troops from the air.
Watch the Oryx Website in the coming days to see if the Russian tanks, BMP/BTRs, and MT-LBs keep taking losses. For instance, I’m watching very closely to see if the Russians have 85 more tanks destroyed, abandoned, or captured (March 15 if they keep losing 12 tanks per day) as the conflict drags on. At that point in time, their invasion could grind to a halt with almost a third of their estimated tanks out of the fight.
Conclusion
Did you like this post? Want more on current, military topics? Then check out:
Deeper Understanding of Afghanistan
Leaving the Graveyard: The Soviet Union’s Withdrawal From Afghanistan
Want even more? In my day job, I’m an executive coach. I published a book last summer on how to develop your perseverance and accomplish your goals — Grow Your Grit, available for sale at Amazon. Or reach out to me here to start the discussion about executive coaching opportunities.